The case for some Europhilia: deus ex Bruxellis?

Ireland is late to the party when it comes to the rise of right wing parties, just as we were latecomers to the leftist ideologies to which this growth is in reaction. Many European countries like France and Germany are on the brink of having their parliaments won by reactionaries who have only come to prominence in the last decade or so. This, naturally, raises many questions for the future of the European Union, many of these parties are openly Eurosceptic and opposed to the increasing powers of Brussels. Just how exactly will these new rightist national governments interact with the EU?

Perhaps the scariest scenario for Ursula von der Leyen & co., and the topic of this piece, is the total victory of the right in ousting the parties of the managerial state and winning a majority in Brussels itself. As things currently stand, the three right wing political groups in European parliament, European Conservatives and Reformists, Patriots for Europe, and Europe of Sovereign Nations got a combined total of just over 24% of votes in the 2024 election, gaining 197 of the parliaments 720 seats. In the two years since this election they have grown to about 30% according to polls, given another 3 years to grow until the next election in 2029, there is a real likelihood for some sort of right wing ascendancy in Europe, at the very least making it ever more difficult for the establishment parties to form a majority.

Things get worse for the old guard of Brussels when you take into consideration the fact that before the next European session there will be elections key member states like Poland, Spain, and, perhaps most importantly, France will be having major elections where the right is expected to come out on top. All things going well, this would mean that the next European Council and Commission will have a strong Eurosceptic streak built in that will likely make life quite difficult for the successors of von der Leyen.

The intricacies of such a potential coalition in Brussels are too much to get into here, and I'm certainly not the best person to talk about them, what I'm more interested in today is where this will leave Ireland. As mentioned at the beginning, our right wing is years behind that of Europe, Aontú and Independent Ireland, who both leave much to be desired both in terms of policy and prowess, are currently polling at a combined 16%. This is a decent start for sure, but it's nothing compared to the rise of the significantly more palatable Alternative für Deutschland or Rassemblement National. Could it be that our European allies will get to upend Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael before our domestic opposition?

Assuming no early elections, a 2029 European race would fall just 6 months before the Irish equivalent is expected to happen. Assuming a right wing majority, this leaves a short window in which the FFG government, being the slaves to Brussels they are, would have to kowtow to a Europe that partly shares our beliefs on immigration, cultural values, and the future of Europe. Ironically for many of the pronounced Eurosceptics that make up parts of the Irish right, the laws that usher in the end of mass migration into Ireland could very well be imposed directly from Brussels and implemented by the same hollowed-out and spineless establishment parties that introduced mass immigration to our country in the first place by the EU's will.

The impacts of this on the following Irish election would also likely be disastrous for FFG in any case. The presence of ideologically aligned parties at the very top of the EU, which is, however unfortunately, viewed by many voters as the standard bearer of "normalcy" and all that is "proper" in politics, would serve to further legitimise our own right wing. Aontú and Independent Ireland are already reaching new heights as it is, having rightist governments in countries we traditionally look to as being our friends would give them a further boost and perhaps even serve to push them even further to the right to be more in line with the continentals.

What about the off chance that FFG do, miraculously, grow a spine? I don't think this would help them much either. For years their go to excuse when asked about a host of issues has been that their hand was tied by Brussels, and that Ireland must comply with their whims. Open resistance to their new masters would do nothing but bring a whole new level of disdain their way, as this old excuse is revealed as a bare faced lie.

While it's fun to imagine (and hopefully watch) Harris and Martin squirm, the main point of this thought experiment is to point out that many of the problems we on the right have with the EU just come down the fact it's run by our enemies, no different to Leinster House. The bureaucracy, centralisation, erosion of our neutrality, etc. are mostly the result of the centre and left parties that have run Europe for the last few decades. The right that's rising across the major members of the EU is generally of a similar mind as us when it comes to these issues, should they take power there's a real chance we will get to both have our cake and eat it by having all the upsides of free trade and movement across Europe without the downsides of Brussels hegemony and mass third world immigration.

The final question I leave to be pondered is just how do we in Ireland contribute to the rightward shift in the EU. European elections typically take a back seat to Irish politics and few people pay much attention to them, even the major parties. In the last few elections the parties of the right mostly stood their people who were simultaneously and with most of their effort campaigning for the locals with the aim of eventually making it to Leinster House, the European race took a backseat. I think it would be worth our time if we took Europe a bit more seriously and pushed some candidates who were actually focused on Europe, perhaps even working with the aforementioned European parties of ECR, PfE and ESN. Through this we can secure the interests of Ireland while continuing the pan-European struggle that may be our first view of salvation.